An El Nino weather phenomenon that helped supercharge dry conditions across South East Asia in 2015 and 2016 is set for an early return in the second half of 2017, according to a forecast released from the World Meteorological Organisation in April.

El Nino happens when winds in the equatorial Pacific slow, or reverse directions. This warms water over a large area, which can dramatically alter weather patterns around the globe. It typically decreases rainfall in Timor-Leste, Australia and parts of southeast and southern Asia.

As the probability of a 2017 El Nino increases, analyists have warned of risks to crops – such as rice, robusta coffee and sugar in Asia and Africa.

Analysts say information is critical to mitigating supply-demand situations in soft commodities – particularly staple food products such as rice.

NivioMangalães, the Director of Center of National Logistics, said the stockpiled rice would be introduced to the domestic market to “normalise” expected supply shortages and subsequent price increase.

“With this quantity of rice the National Logistic Centre will utilise when the necessity of market needs,’’ Mangalãessaid on Friday..

The Center of National Logstics will sell the stockpiled rice at set $11/kilogram.

Of the 27 El Nino weather patterns observed since 1900, just 18 have resulted in widespread droughts in southeast Asia, according to the Australian Bureau of Metereology.

However, risks, and impact to food crops are exacerbated  by the fact that much of Timor-Leste and Southeast Asia are only just starting to recover from the 2015-16 event, which was one of the three most-severe on record.

The US Climate Prediction Centre noted on its website that it was unusual for an El Nino to follow so closely after a La Nina, which ended in January, and a previous El Nino.